Listed below
are notes from the author's weekly analysis.
The Sector
Trends blog does not make forecasts and does not cheerlead with its commentary.
The perspective offered is on current trends in the market, which sectors and
groups are rotating, and which stocks from these groups are likely to perform
best in a neutral/positive environment. Readers need to provide their own
assessment of market health, employ their own risk management strategies, and
trade accordingly. In a declining market nearly all equities will suffer,
including those found listed here.
All data and
charts displayed here are the property of MarketSmith, and are published here
with their permission.
Market Overview:
The table
below shows price performance for key markets and sectors over the trailing 26
weeks, and is sorted high to low by 5 week performance. The green and
red shading denotes relative performance +/- to the SP 500 for the time period
in question.
Index
|
1 Week Gain
|
2 Week Gain
|
3 Week Gain
|
5 Week Gain
|
13 Week Gain
|
26 Week Gain
|
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index
|
3.3%
|
5.9%
|
11.7%
|
11.2%
|
9.7%
|
26.0%
|
Philadelphia Housing Index
|
2.7%
|
5.4%
|
13.8%
|
10.7%
|
9.8%
|
25.8%
|
Pboe Oil Service Index
|
1.5%
|
5.5%
|
9.9%
|
9.0%
|
4.5%
|
24.0%
|
Nasdaq Composite
|
1.7%
|
4.8%
|
7.2%
|
7.3%
|
7.6%
|
18.3%
|
KBW Large Cap Bank Index
|
2.8%
|
3.4%
|
6.7%
|
6.1%
|
6.4%
|
21.6%
|
Russell 2000
|
2.2%
|
4.3%
|
6.9%
|
5.6%
|
6.7%
|
22.7%
|
Dow Jones Transportation Index
|
2.5%
|
4.2%
|
5.7%
|
5.6%
|
7.9%
|
27.0%
|
SP 500
|
1.2%
|
3.3%
|
5.0%
|
5.2%
|
7.6%
|
18.4%
|
DJIA
|
1.0%
|
2.8%
|
3.9%
|
3.8%
|
8.0%
|
18.0%
|
Cboe Technology Index
|
0.6%
|
5.9%
|
9.1%
|
3.5%
|
1.3%
|
5.7%
|
Russell 1000 Energy Index
|
0.7%
|
3.6%
|
6.9%
|
3.4%
|
1.8%
|
13.7%
|
Philadelphia Utility Index
|
-2.8%
|
-3.1%
|
-2.5%
|
0.3%
|
8.6%
|
14.5%
|
Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index
|
0.8%
|
2.1%
|
5.5%
|
-14.0%
|
-28.8%
|
-40.1%
|
Last week
the market logged solid gains led by the Russell 2000's +2.2% and the Nasdaq's
+1.7%.
Group Themes:
The tables
below show commodity, technology and defensively related group's price
performance over the trailing 1, 2, 3, 5, 13 and 26 week periods.
30 Commodity
Oriented Groups:
|
1 wk
|
2 wk
|
3 wk
|
5 wk
|
13 wk
|
26 wk
|
# in the
top 50 groups (out of 197)
|
8
|
11
|
12
|
4
|
3
|
5
|
# in the
bottom 50 groups (out of 197)
|
4
|
2
|
4
|
7
|
17
|
11
|
28 Technology
Oriented Groups:
|
1 wk
|
2 wk
|
3 wk
|
5 wk
|
13 wk
|
26 wk
|
# in the
top 50 groups (out of 197)
|
5
|
11
|
12
|
8
|
3
|
4
|
# in the
bottom 50 groups (out of 197)
|
6
|
5
|
3
|
8
|
11
|
10
|
30 Defensively
Oriented Groups:
|
1 wk
|
2 wk
|
3 wk
|
5 wk
|
13 wk
|
26 wk
|
# in the
top 50 groups (out of 197)
|
7
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
10
|
5
|
# in the
bottom 50 groups (out of 197)
|
16
|
17
|
15
|
10
|
0
|
5
|
Last week defensive
groups performed poorly investors demonstrated a slight preference for
commodity oriented groups. This suggests continued positive performance from
the markets.
Industry Group Performance:
Internet: For the past 2 weeks the blog
has pointed out the positive reactions to earnings releases companies from the Internet-Content
group (G3334).
Last week's
blog highlighted WebMD (WBMD) as a high probability choice going into earnings.
After Tuesday's AMC earnings release, on Wednesday WBMD showed a solid 20% gain
before closing up 9.5%. WBMD saw additional buying Thursday & Friday,
finishing the week +16.8%.
Two weeks
ago the blog highlighted Bankrate (RATE) which gained 16.7%. RATE looks like it
could push for $20 if it clears 16.30 with volume.
Building: The Bldg-Mobile/Mfg &
Rv industry group (G3791) ranks #180 in MarketSmith's industry group
rankings but is demonstrating strong short term price performance. The group
ranks in the top 50 of the trailing 1, 2, 3 & 5 week price performance
lists, coming in at #34 on the 5 week list with a 9.4% gain. The group has a 50
day up/down volume ratio of 1.4, ranking #33 in this metric out of 197 groups.
Winnebago
Industries (WGO) is one for the watch list. WGO is currently working on the
right side of a cup shaped base, but shows significant distribution on the left
side. This distribution appears to be the result of their filing to sell $35M
in stock on April 4. Despite the distribution institutional sponsorship shows
steady increases over the last 4 quarters, 204 > 208 > 221 > 248.
Recent EPS estimates reflect positive revisions, with FY '13 EPS forecast
+261%, FY '14 +21%.
Mining: The Mining-Metal Ores
group (G1099) has an abysmal MarketSmith ranking of #196 out of #197, and when
measured by price performance over the trailing 26 weeks also ranks #196 with a
-9.9% loss. However, the group has been on a tear over the last 3 weeks with a
1 week gain of 3.9% (#29), a 2 week gain of 7.7% (#18), and a 3 week gain of
13.3% (#11). The group is comprised of 49 stocks, and last week 11 of them
(22%) gained 10% or more in price, and 18 of them (36.7%) gained 5% plus.
Symbol
|
Name
|
Current Price
|
Days Vol Short Current
|
RS
|
EPS
|
A/D
|
50-Day Avg Vol (1000s)
|
Market Cap (mil)
|
% Off High
|
% Chg Cur Week
|
URZ
|
Uranerz
Energy Corp
|
1.32
|
21.4
|
14
|
45
|
C
|
361
|
101.9
|
-30.16
|
32.4
|
TAS
|
Tasman
Metals Ltd
|
0.88
|
0.1
|
3
|
23
|
B-
|
65
|
53.5
|
-56.86
|
27.5
|
MCP
|
Molycorp
Inc
|
7.34
|
6.8
|
6
|
20
|
B+
|
7423
|
1384.2
|
-71.88
|
26.8
|
QRM
|
Quest
Rare Minerals Ltd
|
0.69
|
2.8
|
2
|
15
|
B
|
125
|
42.9
|
-66.34
|
26.7
|
REE
|
Rare
Element Resources
|
2.33
|
4.3
|
3
|
28
|
B+
|
274
|
104.7
|
-56.45
|
26.6
|
TC
|
Thompson
Creek Metals Co
|
3.76
|
14.7
|
52
|
25
|
B
|
1784
|
638.7
|
-17.36
|
23.7
|
CLF
|
Cliffs
Natural Resources
|
23.53
|
2.9
|
2
|
26
|
B
|
13547
|
3602.3
|
-59.68
|
18.2
|
URRE
|
Uranium
Resources Inc
|
2.50
|
11.5
|
2
|
17
|
C+
|
138
|
49.4
|
-70.59
|
13.6
|
AWC
|
Alumina
Limited Adr
|
4.35
|
2.9
|
54
|
20
|
B-
|
303
|
2653.7
|
-17.3
|
12.7
|
URG
|
Ur-Energy
Inc
|
0.93
|
7.3
|
34
|
16
|
B-
|
211
|
112.1
|
-24.79
|
11.5
|
SVBL
|
Silver
Bull Resources
|
0.44
|
6.0
|
29
|
43
|
B
|
216
|
69.7
|
-20.36
|
10.9
|
UEC
|
Uranium
Energy Corp
|
1.67
|
27.5
|
4
|
18
|
D
|
532
|
142.8
|
-44.7
|
8.4
|
AVL
|
Avalon
Rare Metals Inc
|
1.16
|
15.1
|
7
|
42
|
B
|
301
|
120.2
|
-53.04
|
7.4
|
TRQ
|
Turquoise
Hill Resources
|
7.68
|
12.4
|
14
|
22
|
B
|
2291
|
7722.5
|
-30.87
|
7.3
|
TCK
|
Teck
Resources Ltd
|
29.13
|
3.3
|
13
|
17
|
C-
|
3056
|
16898.3
|
-24.47
|
6.2
|
ZINC
|
Horsehead
Hldg Corp
|
11.38
|
14.2
|
69
|
47
|
B+
|
314
|
501
|
-0.61
|
6.1
|
CCJ
|
Cameco
Corp
|
20.90
|
1.3
|
34
|
22
|
C+
|
1581
|
8263.8
|
-10.03
|
5.5
|
GMO
|
General
Moly Inc
|
1.94
|
15.7
|
2
|
30
|
D
|
331
|
177.6
|
-54.35
|
5.4
|
Investing in
this group should probably be reserved for those comfortable with high risk
speculation, but with that said the table above likely contains numerous short
squeeze opportunities.
Retail: This blog commented on the
improving strength seen in the retail sector in the April 7, 14 and 28 postings.
That strength continued last week as 9 retail related groups finished in the
top 50 of the trailing 1 week price performance list, against only two in the bottom
50. Six weeks ago only 1 retail group ranked in the top 50 of MarketSmith's
industry group rankings, now there are 6.
The Retail-Whlsle-Jewelry
group (G5971) gained 6.1% last week (#10), and jumped +64 in MarketSmith's
industry group rankings to #119 overall.
Fossil
(FOSL) gained 11.2% last week after crushing earnings, announcing EPS that beat
1.21 vs 0.97, and revenues $680.9M vs. $651M. FOSL is seeing strong
accumulation with an "A-" accumulation/distribution ranking, 50 day up/down
volume ratio of 1.3, 25 day ratio 2.5, and a solid increase in institutional
support last quarter from 692 to 722 funds. ROE 28%, EPS 94, RS 77. FOSL looks
like a buy as it crosses 108.80.
Francesca's
(FRAN) is out of the Retail-Apparel/Shoes/Acc group and is also seeing
accumulation with a "B" accumulation/distribution ranking, 50 day up/down
volume ratio of 1.6, and a 25 day ratio 2.8. FRAN looks like a buy on a move
above 29.90.
Apparel: 5 weeks ago the Sector Trends
blog noted “The Apparel-Clothing Mfg group
(G2300) has been an underperformer with an industry group rank of #162 and a
relative strength of 19. However, the group actually gained 0.2% both Wednesday
and Friday of last week as the market was picking up distribution days,
Wednesday's gain occurred in volume 25% above average. This display of relative
strength during the midst of very poor market performance suggests the group
could begin to see improved performance.”
That
analysis proved prescient as over the intervening 5 weeks the group has gained 9.8%
to rank #30 on the trailing 5 week price performance list, and has jumped +51
in MarketSmith's industry group rankings to #111 overall.
Quicksilver
(ZQK) was featured 2 weeks ago with a 6.83 pivot and broke out last week
gaining 9.7% in volume 46% above average.
Under Armour
(UA) is only 2% past its 58.52 pivot:
The Jones
Group (JNY) is seeing accumulation with a 50 day up/down volume ratio of 1.6,
and a 25 day ratio of 2.0. JNY looks ready to move higher.
Follow up:
The blog has
featured Workday (WDAY) numerous times in both its weekly analysis and tweets. WDAY
is seeing very heavy accumulation with a 50 day up/down volume ratio of 2.9,
and a 25 day ratio of 4.6.
Carrizo Oil
& Gas was featured a few months ago with a 22.69 buy point. It's now
pushing up against a 27.30 buy point for the third time and is seeing heavy accumulation.
